Signal Console
How the score works: every indicator below scores 0 (green), ½ (amber) or 1 (red), weighted by how much it mattered before past crashes (credit and capex weigh most), averaged, and scaled to 100. What it measures: how much today resembles the conditions before 2000 / 2007-style tops — think of it as a fire-danger index for the market, not a forecast. What it can't do: call the day. ELEVATED or even HIGH can persist for years while markets keep rising. Use it to set how much risk you carry, not to time an exit.
Last 12 months of aggregate score (0–100), reconstructed from FRED market data. Auto indicators (yields, VIX, credit, trend) vary by day; manual inputs (P/E, capex, Fed stance) use your current values as a stand-in for history.
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The meter's inputs are slow (daily/quarterly). This is for the fast ones that fire between refreshes — a capex-guidance cut, a neocloud refinancing headline, a private-credit markdown, an AI credit spread gapping wider. Log the date and what happened so the quick signals don't slip through.
This is a monitoring aid, not a prediction. No combination of these lights can tell you the day a market tops — every historical crash looked calm days before. Red means risk is elevated, not that a crash is imminent; several of these can stay red for a long time while markets keep rising. Refresh the inputs monthly or quarterly. Not investment advice — a framework for your own decisions.
Editing a card saves only in your browser. To update the shared feed (what everyone sees + email alerts), POST to /overrides with your admin token. Replace YOUR_ADMIN_TOKEN below.