✨ the cats are watching the bubble ✨
How the score works: every indicator scores 0 (green), ½ (amber) or 1 (red), weighted by importance and averaged to 100. The board is tilted toward the AI/tech bubble specifically: tech-direct signals (Nasdaq P/E, hyperscaler capex, Mag-7 concentration, Nasdaq trend, tech-vs-market rotation) carry ~38% of the weight, credit — the AI financing channel — another ~16%; broad-market and macro gauges are the backdrop. What it can't do: call the exact top. Valuation can stay red for years; the reactive cards (Nasdaq trend, rotation, VIX, credit speed) are what confirm an unwind is actually underway.
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The purple line is the risk score (0–100) and the gold line is the Nasdaq-100 (rescaled to the selected window) — they should mirror each other: when the gold line dips, the score should climb. Tip: on the 2-year view a long rally squashes recent dips flat — tap 3m or 6m to zoom in and both lines rescale. Nasdaq P/E and capex use current values as a stand-in.
The meter's inputs are slow (daily/quarterly). This is for the fast ones that fire between refreshes — a capex-guidance cut, a neocloud refinancing headline, a private-credit markdown, an AI credit spread gapping wider. Log the date and what happened so the quick signals don't slip through.
This is a monitoring aid, not a prediction. No combination of these lights can tell you the day a market tops — every historical crash looked calm days before. Red means risk is elevated, not that a crash is imminent; several of these can stay red for a long time while markets keep rising. Refresh the inputs monthly or quarterly. Not investment advice — a framework for your own decisions. 🐱✨